I’m 37 now. The first time I was able to vote was in 2010 (after missing out by about a month in 2005) at age 22. I’m a personification of the demographic problem for the Conservatives, because I’ve spent all of my adult and working life under a Conservative government while they positioned themselves as a party for pensioners.

I’m fascinated by this election because it looks like we’re going from unbeatable Conservative dominance to a total Conservative wipe out. I don’t really understand it. I wonder if COVID sped up the demographic shift?

The campaign seems to be disaster after disaster for them and it’s hilarious. The most recent one is their director of campaigning had to step back as his wife (a candidate) is under investigation for placing a bet on the election date. But given their campaign so far this may work in their favour. The betting scandal is odd because it seems most of the bets were relatively small at a few hundred pounds potential winnings. I don’t know why they would risk their credibility and criminal charges for sums of money that aren’t just not life altering but not even week altering.

I feel a bit sorry for Rishi Sunak because I don’t think he’s the worst PM since 2010, and might actually be the best (i.e. least worst), so it must feel a bit bewildering that he’s got to take all the blame for his predecessors’ failings even though they seemed to be incredibly popular at the time. David Cameron caused the EU referendum with no thought as to the consequences, Theresa May followed through on it with only slightly more thought and Liz Truss almost caused a market rout. Boris, I don’t know. Brexit was partially his fault but that was before he was PM. COVID wasn’t his fault and his vaccine program was strong… but the initial response was slow and led to a lot of people dying unnecessarily. There was also a lot of personal sleaze but that is mostly inconsequential. Rishi is a bit rubbish and seems to lack any kind of political sense but hasn’t really done anything to leave a mark. David Cameron is the real source of the problems they face as his austerity policies set in motion the resentment that led to the brexit vote and all the political and economic chaos since then, and, ironically, the problems they now have with Reform taking their votes.

Reform is an odd one. Their candidates are simpletons, but they won’t win more than a handful of MPs. Their biggest asset is Nigel Farage. For all the appearance he gives of being a slick political operator, he also goes on TV and says it was the West’s fault Ukraine got invaded. There have been questions about Russian involvement in the Brexit campaign and in my opinion they are yet to be resolved. I don’t think Farage is going to enjoy the increased scrutiny when he becomes an MP. But I will.

Apparently I live in a Lab/Con marginal now, which is a bit of a surprise to me because it used to be a Lib/Con marginal before the former imploded in 2015 and then became a safe Con seat. In fact it looks like my constituency may be (I assume) pretty much the only in the country to return a new Conservative MP, as the incumbent got kicked out of the party due to a deluge of complaints about his behaviour towards women (and is now standing as an independent, for reasons known only to himself).

Current polling has it roughly 50/50 between Labour and Conservative. I have had leaflets from the Conservative and Lib Dem candidates. Nothing from Labour – perhaps nobody has told her that she has a chance of winning? The Labour candidate looks like the weakest of the lot but it looks like that’s who I have to vote for. To be honest I’d prefer to go with Lib Dems because I generally think they do good work on civil liberties and both Labour and Conservative can be very authoritarian, but there we are.